BASILONE: These Sunni groups—vigilante groups or whatever they may be—are they becoming legitimized? Will they be wearing uniforms? Are they wearing uniforms? Will they be part of the Iraqi police and army?
HILTERMANN: Well, this is the $5 million question, because if they don't, then all we have done in the past year, or all the United States has done, is to train, equip, fund one side in a civil war, the sectarian war between Sunnis and Shiites, while of course they continue to build the Iraqi security forces, which is the other side in the civil war, 'cause they're dominated by the Shiite militias. What ought to happen is the gradual incorporation of these Sunni militias into the security apparatus of the Iraqi state. But that is a very difficult process. It's being resisted by the Iraqi government because it's controlled by Shiite militias. And so this is going to be extremely difficult. And if it fails, then we may be back to square one, but, as I said, with actors that are better armed and equipped than before.
BASILONE: And so the chances of a civil war then aren't gone.
HILTERMAN: The chances of a re-escalation of the civil war are quite significant, but it's mostly because I don't see any real energy being exerted by the Bush administration to bring about these political deals. I think the Bush administration is quite content if the situation remains relatively stable through the surge until the November elections, and then it's, you know, après moi le deluge. And so whoever comes to the White House, Democrat or Republican, will inherit the mess that will be unleashed once American forces start to draw down, as eventually they must. The key is to bring some kind of political accommodation at the top, and this is where we just have seen no real progress.
Hiltermann is the author of A Poisonous Affair: America, Iraq, and the Gassing of Halabja (Cambridge University Press,2007).
